Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082025 250926 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 57.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 71.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 53.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.3 26.5 21.9 20.2 18.0 25.5 26.4 27.9 U N N N F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 58.0 58.0 58.0 57.0 49.0 51.0 52.0 54.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 109.3 109.3 109.3 109.3 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -9.0 13.0 -3.0 3.0 11.0 -24.0 41.0 18.0 U U U U U VU N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 53.0 53.0 54.0 55.0 57.0 63.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 -5.0 -9.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 21.4% 15.3% 18.4% 25kt / 24h 35.6% 51.2% 43.4% 30kt / 24h 26.9% 42.4% 34.7% 35kt / 24h 26.9% 42.4% 34.7% 40kt / 24h 13.8% 40.7% 27.2% 45kt / 36h 24.3% 47.5% 35.9% 55kt / 36h 16.0% 29.2% 22.6% 55kt / 48h 18.1% 22.8% 20.4% 70kt / 48h 6.3% 13.0% 9.6% 65kt / 72h 6.7% 15.6% 11.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.38 AL082025 250926 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 57.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.3 26.5 21.9 20.2 18.0 25.5 26.4 27.9 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 53.0 53.0 54.0 55.0 57.0 63.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 -5.0 -9.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%