Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     57.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  18.9  16.5  18.4  19.8  24.4  22.8  23.7  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  59.0  57.0  54.0  48.0  47.0  61.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        109.3 109.3 109.3 109.3 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  13.0  27.0   2.0  36.0 -21.0   7.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  N VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  60.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0   7.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.1%        9.8%        9.9%
 25kt / 24h       25.0%       44.8%       34.9%
 30kt / 24h       16.8%       36.4%       26.6%
 35kt / 24h       14.0%       36.4%       25.2%
 40kt / 24h        7.1%       33.3%       20.2%
 45kt / 36h       18.4%       35.8%       27.1%
 55kt / 36h        9.8%       18.6%       14.2%
 55kt / 48h       15.2%       20.3%       17.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%        8.1%        6.6%
 65kt / 72h        9.3%       13.0%       11.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 AL082025 250926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     57.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  18.9  16.5  18.4  19.8  24.4  22.8  23.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  60.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0   7.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%