Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30     57.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  13.5  16.5  15.1  19.6  20.3  23.8  25.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  52.0  51.0  57.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         89.3  89.3  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  87.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  19.0  11.0  23.0 -11.0  15.0   9.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  52.0  54.0  60.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -7.0  -1.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       75.3%       55.4%       65.3%
 25kt / 24h       79.4%       85.8%       82.6%
 30kt / 24h       79.4%       85.8%       82.6%
 35kt / 24h       79.4%       85.8%       82.6%
 40kt / 24h       72.6%       85.8%       79.2%
 45kt / 36h       51.6%       59.6%       55.6%
 55kt / 36h       35.2%       43.5%       39.3%
 55kt / 48h       29.0%       38.6%       33.8%
 70kt / 48h       12.6%       16.7%       14.7%
 65kt / 72h        6.4%       12.5%        9.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.44

 AL082025 250926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30     57.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  13.5  16.5  15.1  19.6  20.3  23.8  25.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  52.0  54.0  60.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -7.0  -1.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%