Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30     57.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  16.4  15.1  18.3  19.9  20.1  26.6  22.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  54.0  49.0  48.0  48.0  59.0  41.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         69.3  69.3  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  15.0  20.0  12.0  23.0  28.0   7.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  50.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  54.0  61.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0   7.0   4.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       66.5%       33.9%       50.2%
 25kt / 24h       50.3%       49.3%       49.8%
 30kt / 24h       50.3%       49.1%       49.7%
 35kt / 24h       48.9%       49.1%       49.0%
 40kt / 24h       42.5%       49.1%       45.8%
 45kt / 36h       64.4%       32.8%       48.6%
 55kt / 36h       26.8%       18.9%       22.8%
 55kt / 48h       40.1%        9.6%       24.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 AL082025 250926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30     57.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  16.4  15.1  18.3  19.9  20.1  26.6  22.3  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  50.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  54.0  61.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0   7.0   4.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%