Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     58.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  12.9  14.4  16.6  14.7  20.7  28.5  23.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  51.0  48.0  50.0  50.0  57.0  34.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  35.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0   5.0  15.0  15.0  12.0   3.0  13.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  59.0  65.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -6.0   4.0   5.0   7.0  11.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       55.8%       23.1%       39.4%
 25kt / 24h       29.0%       26.4%       27.7%
 30kt / 24h       29.0%       23.1%       26.0%
 35kt / 24h       22.6%       22.3%       22.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 AL082025 250927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     58.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  12.9  14.4  16.6  14.7  20.7  28.5  23.8  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  59.0  65.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -6.0   4.0   5.0   7.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%