Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20     58.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  18.2  17.9  15.6  20.5  28.9  36.2  29.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  49.0  50.0  48.0  58.0  45.0  30.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  37.0  23.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  35.0  -4.0 -16.0  12.0  26.0  31.0 -12.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  55.0  63.0  70.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -6.0  -8.0  -4.0   3.0   6.0  11.0  12.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.2%       13.0%       29.6%
 25kt / 24h       18.7%       13.8%       16.3%
 30kt / 24h       18.7%       10.9%       14.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 AL082025 250927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20     58.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  18.2  17.9  15.6  20.5  28.9  36.2  29.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  55.0  63.0  70.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -6.0  -8.0  -4.0   3.0   6.0  11.0  12.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%