Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50     59.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  17.8  15.5  14.4  22.1  32.3  32.8  31.9  N  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  50.0  48.0  49.0  57.0  35.0  28.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  30.1  17.4  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0 -20.0 -21.0   7.0  13.0 -13.0   8.0  52.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  48.0  50.0  57.0  66.0  71.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -9.0  -5.0   0.0   6.0   6.0  18.0  18.0  F  F  F  N  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.2%        3.8%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%        5.4%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%        4.1%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 AL082025 250927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50     59.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  17.8  15.5  14.4  22.1  32.3  32.8  31.9  N  N  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  48.0  50.0  57.0  66.0  71.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -9.0  -5.0   0.0   6.0   6.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%