Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70     60.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  13.9  12.5  16.7  23.8  30.1  27.4  29.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  48.0  51.0  60.0  41.0  27.0  24.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  27.0   7.4  -5.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0 -27.0  -6.0  13.0  13.0  24.0 -15.0  79.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  48.0  48.0  51.0  58.0  67.0  70.0  72.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -4.0   0.0   7.0   3.0  14.0  14.0  16.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.9%        6.9%       11.9%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%        7.9%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 AL082025 250927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70     60.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  13.9  12.5  16.7  23.8  30.1  27.4  29.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  48.0  48.0  51.0  58.0  67.0  70.0  72.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -4.0   0.0   7.0   3.0  14.0  14.0  16.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.1%        2.1%