Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     61.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  12.9  14.1  18.0  29.6  30.6  30.4  37.5  F  F  F  F  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  52.0  60.0  54.0  32.0  26.0  24.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  19.6   8.6  -5.2 -17.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0  -8.0  23.0 -17.0 -11.0  18.0  52.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  52.0  54.0  62.0  69.0  71.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   5.0   3.0   5.0  10.0  13.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.0%        0.0%        8.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 AL082025 250928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     61.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  12.9  14.1  18.0  29.6  30.6  30.4  37.5  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  52.0  54.0  62.0  69.0  71.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   5.0   3.0   5.0  10.0  13.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.3%        2.1%