Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70     62.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  15.2  16.2  20.7  30.9  27.4  29.4  39.5  F  F  F  N  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  60.0  51.0  38.0  27.0  24.0  26.0  24.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  29.3  20.1   7.4  -9.0 -15.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  15.0 -26.0   8.0  23.0  27.0  83.0  75.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  53.0  58.0  67.0  70.0  74.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   6.0   0.0   1.0  14.0   6.0  24.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  U  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%        2.8%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        2.9%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 AL082025 250928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70     62.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  15.2  16.2  20.7  30.9  27.4  29.4  39.5  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  53.0  58.0  67.0  70.0  74.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   6.0   0.0   1.0  14.0   6.0  24.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  F  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.0%        3.0%