Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082025 250928 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.20 63.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 55.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.9 16.9 21.2 27.8 34.1 33.3 40.2 48.1 F F N N U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 60.0 51.0 38.0 30.0 28.0 23.0 21.0 30.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.0 35.0 34.3 29.6 18.6 4.8 -8.9 -10.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 41.0 -25.0 7.0 -31.0 43.0 46.0 72.0 81.0 N VU U VU N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 53.0 57.0 61.0 69.0 73.0 76.0 65.0 U U U N N N F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 11.0 19.0 32.0 0.0 N N N N U VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.48 AL082025 250928 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.20 63.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.9 16.9 21.2 27.8 34.1 33.3 40.2 48.1 U N N N F F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 53.0 57.0 61.0 69.0 73.0 76.0 65.0 F F F N N N U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 11.0 19.0 32.0 0.0 N N N N F VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 9.6% 4.8%