Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082025 250928 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.10 64.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 97.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 74.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.1 25.0 30.6 36.3 32.2 34.9 46.2 65.5 F N U U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 48.0 37.0 29.0 27.0 24.0 25.0 17.0 5.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 40.0 39.3 34.6 30.1 17.4 1.0 -5.4 -10.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 -3.0 0.0 44.0 37.0 50.0 86.0 114.0 U U U N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 55.0 61.0 67.0 70.0 78.0 69.0 54.0 U U N N N F N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 2.0 7.0 17.0 18.0 33.0 27.0 -27.0 N N N U VU VU VU VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.34 AL082025 250928 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.10 64.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.1 25.0 30.6 36.3 32.2 34.9 46.2 65.5 N N N F N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 55.0 61.0 67.0 70.0 78.0 69.0 54.0 F F N N N U N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 2.0 7.0 17.0 18.0 33.0 27.0 -27.0 N N N F VF VF VF VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 16.5% 8.2%