Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082025 250929 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 65.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 89.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 61.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.7 31.3 36.3 37.1 34.0 47.6 51.6 70.1 N U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 28.0 26.0 26.0 23.0 23.0 25.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 39.3 34.6 30.1 21.5 8.0 -7.0 -7.0 -12.8 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 -7.0 67.0 61.0 30.0 66.0 141.0 60.0 U U N N N N VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 58.0 64.0 67.0 75.0 74.0 61.0 57.0 U U N N F N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 16.0 22.0 18.0 14.0 6.0 -30.0 N N U VU VU U N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.7% 1.0% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.16 AL082025 250929 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 65.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.7 31.3 36.3 37.1 34.0 47.6 51.6 70.1 N N F F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 58.0 64.0 67.0 75.0 74.0 61.0 57.0 F F N N U N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 16.0 22.0 18.0 14.0 6.0 -30.0 N N F VF VF F N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 19.9% 10.0%