Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082025 250929 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.70 66.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 86.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 69.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.9 37.0 35.8 33.2 34.3 46.3 67.6 82.8 U U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 28.0 26.0 23.0 24.0 13.0 6.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 44.6 40.1 31.5 25.5 4.6 3.0 0.0 -8.3 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 88.0 46.0 17.0 86.0 118.0 170.0 28.0 U F N U F F VF U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 65.0 67.0 70.0 79.0 68.0 59.0 60.0 U N N N F N U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 18.0 21.0 16.0 32.0 14.0 -51.0 -86.0 U VU VU U VU U VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.90 AL082025 250929 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.70 66.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.9 37.0 35.8 33.2 34.3 46.3 67.6 82.8 F F F F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 65.0 67.0 70.0 79.0 68.0 59.0 60.0 F N N N U N F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 18.0 21.0 16.0 32.0 14.0 -51.0 -86.0 F VF VF F VF F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 28.2% 14.1%