Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082025 250929 12UTC Storm Located at : 27.50 67.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 83.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 75.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.1 36.5 33.7 37.6 45.7 53.2 75.3 100.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 26.0 23.0 23.0 22.0 19.0 7.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 30.1 21.5 15.5 1.0 -7.0 -3.9 -12.8 -40.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 66.0 57.0 9.0 27.0 114.0 155.0 116.0 -31.0 N N U U F VF F VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 67.0 69.0 75.0 75.0 60.0 59.0 57.0 N N N F F N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 21.0 18.0 19.0 28.0 20.0 -16.0 -42.0-204.0 VU VU VU VU VU VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.3% 0.0% 1.6% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.52 AL082025 250929 12UTC Storm Located at : 27.50 67.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.1 36.5 33.7 37.6 45.7 53.2 75.3 100.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 67.0 69.0 75.0 75.0 60.0 59.0 57.0 N N N U U N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 21.0 18.0 19.0 28.0 20.0 -16.0 -42.0-204.0 VF VF VF VF VF VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 21.8% 11.0%