Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50     67.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  33.7  36.1  39.4  48.0  65.9  85.6 101.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  26.0  23.0  21.0   7.0   6.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.5  13.0   6.0  -0.4  -2.0  -6.4 -13.3 -42.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  -3.0  16.0  84.0 133.0 174.0 103.0  12.0  N  U  U  N VF VF  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  72.0  77.0  68.0  58.0  57.0  51.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  16.0  23.0  32.0   9.0 -40.0 -42.0-241.0  U  U VU VU  U VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        0.0%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.02

 AL082025 250929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50     67.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.