Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082025 250930 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.50     69.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.6  49.2  54.0  61.0  72.7 110.8 110.8 110.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  29.0  11.0  10.0  10.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.0  43.0  43.0  44.6  37.2  31.7  31.7  31.7  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0 119.0 110.0 116.0  53.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0  F  F  F  F  N VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  70.0  64.0  56.0  55.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  12.0   1.0 -36.0-162.0-225.0-225.0-225.0 VU  U  N VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.08

 AL082025 250930 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.50     69.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.