Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082025 250930 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.50 69.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 39.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.70 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.7 51.4 57.2 70.9 88.9 88.9 88.9 88.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 24.0 19.0 16.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 48.0 49.6 46.5 49.6 42.2 42.2 42.2 42.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 123.0 108.0 125.0 99.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 F F F F U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 63.0 56.0 50.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 N N U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 9.0 -28.0 -75.0-178.0-178.0-178.0-178.0 U U VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.02 AL082025 250930 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.50 69.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.