Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082025 251001 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.60 69.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 37.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 139.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 52.2 62.7 73.2 83.5 83.5 83.5 83.5 83.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 14.0 19.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 46.5 46.5 49.6 43.6 43.6 43.6 43.6 43.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 137.0 124.0 78.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 VF F N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 56.0 51.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 -4.0 -25.0-149.0-149.0-149.0-149.0-149.0 U F VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.90 AL082025 251001 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.60 69.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.