Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092025 250926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70     74.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  26.0  22.5  20.1  26.9  29.8  36.3  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  67.0  73.0  93.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0 -12.0  -2.0  21.0  56.0  87.0  27.0  53.0  N  U  U  U  N  F  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  59.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   6.0  10.0  16.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.1%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.6%       18.8%       12.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        8.1%        5.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        7.1%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        6.7%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        5.6%       24.3%       15.0%
 55kt / 36h        3.4%        9.9%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h       21.2%       12.9%       17.0%
 70kt / 48h        8.2%        8.4%        8.3%
 65kt / 72h       25.5%       16.6%       21.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 AL092025 250926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70     74.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  26.0  22.5  20.1  26.9  29.8  36.3  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  59.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   6.0  10.0  16.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%