Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092025 250927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30     75.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  18.8  19.1  20.1  23.0  32.2  31.1  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  52.0  55.0  55.0  66.0  86.0  76.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0  -8.0  25.0  56.0  64.0  59.0  -2.0  11.0 VU  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  62.0  61.0  56.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   6.0   4.0  15.0  12.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        3.0%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        7.6%       25.4%       16.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%       12.3%        8.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%       11.3%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%       10.4%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.0%       32.9%       20.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%       15.4%        9.8%
 55kt / 48h       22.2%       16.5%       19.4%
 70kt / 48h        8.9%       11.3%       10.1%
 65kt / 72h       20.3%       17.0%       18.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 AL092025 250927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30     75.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  18.8  19.1  20.1  23.0  32.2  31.1  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  62.0  61.0  56.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   6.0   4.0  15.0  12.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%