Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092025 250927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60     75.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  20.4  19.8  22.5  23.1  28.8  28.4  39.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  52.0  57.0  64.0  72.0 108.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0   8.0  56.0  29.0  86.0  50.0 -11.0  10.0  U  U  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  61.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0   1.0   4.0  10.0  10.0   8.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        2.1%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       19.5%       12.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        8.7%        5.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        7.6%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        6.9%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        6.3%       25.6%       15.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%       10.2%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h       24.5%       14.6%       19.5%
 70kt / 48h       10.2%        8.2%        9.2%
 65kt / 72h       25.9%       16.3%       21.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 AL092025 250927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60     75.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  20.4  19.8  22.5  23.1  28.8  28.4  39.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  61.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0   1.0   4.0  10.0  10.0   8.0  N  N  U  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%