Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092025 250927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     76.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  19.2  23.3  21.1  29.0  23.8  34.1  34.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  54.0  59.0  67.0  74.0  79.0  81.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  61.0  26.0  56.0  83.0 -12.0  18.0  42.0  U  N  U  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  61.0  56.0  53.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   1.0   4.0   3.0  12.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.6%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       22.9%       14.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%       10.9%        6.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        9.7%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        8.6%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.5%       27.2%       16.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.3%       11.1%        7.2%
 55kt / 48h       23.4%       15.3%       19.3%
 70kt / 48h        9.5%        8.4%        8.9%
 65kt / 72h       28.5%       16.5%       22.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 AL092025 250927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     76.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  19.2  23.3  21.1  29.0  23.8  34.1  34.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  61.0  56.0  53.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   1.0   4.0   3.0  12.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%