Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092025 250927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     76.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  21.4  20.9  21.5  25.1  21.7  33.0  27.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  53.0  59.0  63.0  76.0  79.0  84.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 129.6 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  34.0  50.0  74.0  55.0  26.0  21.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   4.0   6.0   9.0   5.0   4.0  -3.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.3%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%       22.6%       14.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%       10.2%        6.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        9.0%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        8.5%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%       25.5%       16.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.7%        9.8%        6.7%
 55kt / 48h       30.2%       17.4%       23.8%
 70kt / 48h       13.7%        9.7%       11.7%
 65kt / 72h       41.3%       22.5%       31.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 AL092025 250927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     76.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  21.4  20.9  21.5  25.1  21.7  33.0  27.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   4.0   6.0   9.0   5.0   4.0  -3.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%