Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092025 250928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40     76.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  18.3  17.5  24.3  18.1  27.6  29.2  32.9  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  56.0  64.0  65.0  81.0  85.0  71.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3 125.1 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  47.0  64.0  90.0  46.0  33.0  39.0   2.0  U  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   4.0   2.0  11.0   1.0  -1.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.7%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%       25.2%       16.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.7%       12.0%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%       10.7%        6.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%       10.5%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h       10.8%       32.5%       21.7%
 55kt / 36h        6.1%       14.7%       10.4%
 55kt / 48h       41.0%       20.4%       30.7%
 70kt / 48h       22.2%       12.1%       17.2%
 65kt / 72h       39.2%       21.6%       30.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 AL092025 250928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40     76.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  18.3  17.5  24.3  18.1  27.6  29.2  32.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   4.0   2.0  11.0   1.0  -1.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%