Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092025 250928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70     77.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  19.1  24.3  21.5  21.9  31.7  26.6  35.1  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  59.0  63.0  74.0  78.0  81.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3 125.1 122.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  71.0  82.0  49.0  68.0  35.0   5.0 -38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   1.0   7.0   6.0   0.0  -6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.9%       19.7%       12.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        7.9%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        6.9%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        6.9%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        9.7%       26.0%       17.8%
 55kt / 36h        5.3%        9.6%        7.4%
 55kt / 48h       38.5%       13.4%       26.0%
 70kt / 48h       19.7%        7.3%       13.5%
 65kt / 72h       34.8%       16.1%       25.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 AL092025 250928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70     77.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  19.1  24.3  21.5  21.9  31.7  26.6  35.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   1.0   7.0   6.0   0.0  -6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%