Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092025 250928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     77.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  23.5  18.9  16.7  25.1  26.2  23.4  30.7  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  66.0  66.0  78.0  76.0  64.0  58.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 127.3 125.1 116.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  93.0  72.0  73.0  51.0  34.0  15.0 -19.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  54.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   4.0   7.0   0.0  -4.0 -13.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.0%       26.2%       17.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%       11.1%        7.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%       10.1%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%       10.1%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h       12.6%       31.0%       21.8%
 55kt / 36h        6.9%       11.9%        9.4%
 55kt / 48h       42.9%       16.4%       29.7%
 70kt / 48h       23.4%        9.5%       16.5%
 65kt / 72h       36.0%       19.5%       27.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 AL092025 250928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     77.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  23.5  18.9  16.7  25.1  26.2  23.4  30.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  54.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   4.0   7.0   0.0  -4.0 -13.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%