Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092025 250928 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.80 77.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.50 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.4 20.5 20.6 24.3 28.3 23.2 27.4 41.5 N N N N N N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 66.0 67.0 84.0 106.0 63.0 58.0 41.0 18.0 N N N F N N N U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 120.1 111.5 103.5 F F F F F N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 114.0 78.0 85.0 104.0 -3.0 38.0 -28.0 43.0 F N F F U N VU N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 57.0 57.0 58.0 54.0 56.0 57.0 57.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 -1.0 -7.0 4.0 0.0 N N N N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.6% 3.6% 3.1% 25kt / 24h 18.3% 34.1% 26.2% 30kt / 24h 10.1% 15.6% 12.8% 35kt / 24h 3.3% 15.4% 9.4% 40kt / 24h 2.5% 15.4% 8.9% 45kt / 36h 15.0% 30.4% 22.7% 55kt / 36h 8.1% 11.7% 9.9% 55kt / 48h 42.3% 15.4% 28.9% 70kt / 48h 22.7% 9.7% 16.2% 65kt / 72h 23.0% 11.8% 17.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.90 AL092025 250928 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.80 77.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.4 20.5 20.6 24.3 28.3 23.2 27.4 41.5 N N N N N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 57.0 57.0 58.0 54.0 56.0 57.0 57.0 N F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 -1.0 -7.0 4.0 0.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%