Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092025 250929 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.60 77.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 61.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 48.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.90 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.7 16.2 19.9 25.0 24.0 22.4 29.0 41.3 N F N N N N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 74.0 91.0 97.0 67.0 60.0 40.0 18.0 24.0 N F F N N N U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 129.3 130.0 124.6 111.5 103.5 98.0 F F F F N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 85.0 68.0 96.0 34.0 8.0 15.0 -24.0 54.0 F N F N U U VU N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 58.0 58.0 56.0 57.0 60.0 61.0 59.0 N U U U U N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 -8.0 -11.0 -9.0 -35.0 N N N N F F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.4% 7.6% 6.0% 25kt / 24h 28.2% 49.7% 39.0% 30kt / 24h 14.3% 30.0% 22.2% 35kt / 24h 7.9% 30.0% 18.9% 40kt / 24h 2.3% 27.6% 14.9% 45kt / 36h 16.9% 46.9% 31.9% 55kt / 36h 9.9% 25.1% 17.5% 55kt / 48h 39.2% 19.6% 29.4% 70kt / 48h 20.8% 15.9% 18.3% 65kt / 72h 13.1% 16.6% 14.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.70 AL092025 250929 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.60 77.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.7 16.2 19.9 25.0 24.0 22.4 29.0 41.3 N U N N N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 58.0 58.0 56.0 57.0 60.0 61.0 59.0 N F F F F N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 -8.0 -11.0 -9.0 -35.0 N N N N U U U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%