Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092025 250929 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.10 77.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.0 20.9 27.0 28.1 24.6 26.2 39.6 58.7 F N N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 75.0 108.0 86.0 62.0 67.0 31.0 22.0 17.0 N F N N N U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 122.0 115.1 104.4 98.5 94.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 82.0 97.0 39.0 15.0 27.0 -23.0 39.0 46.0 N F N U U VU N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 58.0 57.0 55.0 59.0 60.0 56.0 47.0 U U U U U N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 1.0 0.0 -2.0 -9.0 -2.0 -20.0 -33.0 N N N N F N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.0% 7.5% 6.7% 25kt / 24h 20.5% 37.1% 28.8% 30kt / 24h 11.8% 19.9% 15.8% 35kt / 24h 5.7% 19.1% 12.4% 40kt / 24h 2.4% 18.3% 10.3% 45kt / 36h 14.9% 32.8% 23.8% 55kt / 36h 8.6% 14.0% 11.3% 55kt / 48h 32.5% 12.0% 22.2% 70kt / 48h 15.3% 8.1% 11.7% 65kt / 72h 6.5% 5.6% 6.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.62 AL092025 250929 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.10 77.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.0 20.9 27.0 28.1 24.6 26.2 39.6 58.7 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 58.0 57.0 55.0 59.0 60.0 56.0 47.0 F F F F F N F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 1.0 0.0 -2.0 -9.0 -2.0 -20.0 -33.0 N N N N U N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%