Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092025 250929 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.40 77.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 43.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.00 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.7 29.5 32.6 29.4 26.7 35.4 51.4 64.7 N N U N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 97.0 61.0 57.0 60.0 31.0 17.0 19.0 19.0 F N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 114.6 114.6 110.1 93.5 86.2 84.4 77.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 97.0 47.0 1.0 15.0 15.0 41.0 46.0 -34.0 F N U U U N N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 58.0 56.0 59.0 64.0 59.0 46.0 43.0 U U U U N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -10.0 -20.0 -28.0 -58.0 -75.0 N N N F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.0% 8.1% 9.6% 25kt / 24h 18.3% 28.7% 23.5% 30kt / 24h 12.0% 14.4% 13.2% 35kt / 24h 6.9% 14.0% 10.4% 40kt / 24h 3.7% 13.5% 8.6% 45kt / 36h 8.7% 20.1% 14.4% 55kt / 36h 5.0% 7.4% 6.2% 55kt / 48h 14.8% 3.4% 9.1% 70kt / 48h 4.9% 3.1% 4.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 1.8% 1.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.32 AL092025 250929 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.40 77.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.7 29.5 32.6 29.4 26.7 35.4 51.4 64.7 N N F N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 58.0 56.0 59.0 64.0 59.0 46.0 43.0 F F F F N F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -10.0 -20.0 -28.0 -58.0 -75.0 N N N U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%