Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092025 250929 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.20 77.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 51.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.90 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.4 31.4 27.8 27.1 26.9 41.4 56.5 74.1 N U N N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 65.0 58.0 65.0 56.0 19.0 25.0 18.0 21.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 104.6 100.1 91.5 83.5 78.0 67.7 61.5 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 60.0 3.0 11.0 -7.0 18.0 -1.0 52.0 -3.0 N U U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 55.0 59.0 61.0 63.0 54.0 45.0 47.0 U U U N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -10.0 -15.0 -16.0 -60.0 -81.0-131.0 N N F VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 24.2% 13.7% 19.0% 25kt / 24h 27.6% 35.3% 31.5% 30kt / 24h 21.3% 22.0% 21.6% 35kt / 24h 17.7% 22.0% 19.8% 40kt / 24h 10.1% 21.4% 15.8% 45kt / 36h 11.6% 22.7% 17.1% 55kt / 36h 7.3% 9.3% 8.3% 55kt / 48h 9.2% 2.8% 6.0% 70kt / 48h 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.16 AL092025 250929 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.20 77.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.4 31.4 27.8 27.1 26.9 41.4 56.5 74.1 N N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 55.0 59.0 61.0 63.0 54.0 45.0 47.0 F F F N N F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -10.0 -15.0 -16.0 -60.0 -81.0-131.0 N N U VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%