Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092025 250930 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.10 77.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.0 28.9 26.6 25.8 32.9 49.3 77.4 95.7 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 57.0 61.0 49.0 32.0 17.0 15.0 15.0 18.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.6 97.9 89.4 81.6 76.2 72.7 63.0 53.0 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 26.0 21.0 28.0 4.0 3.0 53.0 8.0 -35.0 U U U U U N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 59.0 62.0 64.0 62.0 51.0 49.0 50.0 U U N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -5.0 -10.0 -16.0 -33.0-102.0-160.0-157.0 N F F VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.6% 3.0% 4.3% 25kt / 24h 5.1% 9.2% 7.1% 30kt / 24h 3.8% 4.4% 4.1% 35kt / 24h 2.3% 3.8% 3.1% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 3.5% 2.3% 45kt / 36h 1.3% 3.8% 2.5% 55kt / 36h 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 55kt / 48h 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.80 AL092025 250930 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.10 77.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.0 28.9 26.6 25.8 32.9 49.3 77.4 95.7 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 59.0 62.0 64.0 62.0 51.0 49.0 50.0 F F N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -5.0 -10.0 -16.0 -33.0-102.0-160.0-157.0 N U U VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%