Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092025 250930 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.60 77.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.30 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.3 29.5 30.9 29.7 46.8 55.3 78.1 86.4 N N U N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 58.0 59.0 36.0 19.0 24.0 15.0 16.0 16.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 97.9 91.5 85.5 81.6 78.0 67.7 61.5 55.8 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 27.0 11.0 15.0 26.0 17.0 -20.0 99.0 U U U U U U VU F Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 58.0 62.0 61.0 51.0 39.0 38.0 36.0 U U N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -10.0 -17.0 -16.0 -72.0 -72.0-104.0 -29.0 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.7% 0.9% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.4% 1.5% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.64 AL092025 250930 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.60 77.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.3 29.5 30.9 29.7 46.8 55.3 78.1 86.4 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 58.0 62.0 61.0 51.0 39.0 38.0 36.0 F F N N F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -10.0 -17.0 -16.0 -72.0 -72.0-104.0 -29.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%