Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092025 250930 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.00 76.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 18.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.20 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 30.9 28.3 35.9 39.4 58.2 80.7 81.8 N U N U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 62.0 39.0 19.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 21.0 10.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 81.5 79.4 71.6 66.2 62.7 57.7 45.8 39.2 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 47.0 30.0 24.0 17.0 60.0 -10.0 54.0 88.0 N N U U N U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 60.0 60.0 57.0 49.0 41.0 41.0 47.0 U N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -16.0 -11.0 -30.0 -48.0 -79.0 -7.0 48.0 VF VF F VF VF VF F VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.8% 3.9% 8.4% 25kt / 24h 4.2% 5.8% 5.0% 30kt / 24h 4.2% 2.6% 3.4% 35kt / 24h 3.0% 2.3% 2.6% 40kt / 24h 3.0% 2.2% 2.6% 45kt / 36h 0.7% 1.7% 1.2% 55kt / 36h 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.38 AL092025 250930 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.00 76.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.