Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092025 250930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.20     76.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.4  37.4  39.4  47.4  45.6  75.1  97.2  71.4  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  35.0  17.0  25.0  17.0  21.0  13.0   5.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.5  65.5  63.5  58.0  47.7  37.2  30.4   8.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0   2.0  23.0  17.0  23.0   6.0  76.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  57.0  52.0  43.0  39.0  40.0  47.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -12.0 -33.0 -88.0 -31.0-127.0  19.0  26.0 VF  F VF VF VF VF VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       36.6%        7.0%       21.8%
 25kt / 24h        7.8%        5.7%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%        2.8%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        7.7%        2.7%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        6.3%        2.4%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        1.3%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.32

 AL092025 250930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.20     76.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.