Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092025 251001 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.50     74.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  31.9  43.9  49.5  56.6  90.2  95.9  65.0  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  22.0  24.0  16.0  17.0  12.0   4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.4  61.6  56.2  58.0  46.1  31.7  20.9  -4.8  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  20.0   7.0  32.0 -11.0  12.0  35.0  77.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  53.0  48.0  45.0  48.0  47.0  58.0  N  U  U  U VU  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -28.0 -69.0 -65.0-112.0-183.0 -63.0 -13.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.1%        2.0%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        1.4%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        0.7%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        0.5%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.14

 AL092025 251001 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.50     74.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.