Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092025 251001 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.70     71.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.0  54.1  53.4  61.0  80.2  86.0  78.7  71.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  21.0  13.0  19.0  23.0   6.0   5.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.4  47.7  47.7  41.1  35.0  25.4  21.7  -9.8  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  28.0   6.0 -29.0  18.0  41.0  48.0   1.0  U  U  U VU  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  45.0  41.0  40.0  43.0  47.0  51.0  57.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -58.0 -74.0 -75.0 -98.0-150.0 -80.0 -11.0  -2.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        0.3%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.64

 AL092025 251001 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.70     71.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.