Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092025 251001 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.30 69.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 54.5 55.7 58.2 62.2 79.9 81.9 77.9 80.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 13.0 22.0 17.0 22.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 48.0 42.7 41.0 41.0 28.6 20.4 10.9 -24.1 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 35.0 20.0 -24.0 -8.0 23.0 25.0 -2.0 -61.0 N U VU U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 40.0 38.0 41.0 42.0 51.0 58.0 58.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -61.0 -62.0 -86.0 -95.0-117.0 -30.0 -10.0 -30.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.5% 0.2% 1.4% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.64 AL092025 251001 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.30 69.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85.