Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092025 251002 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.50 63.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 23.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 55.9 56.1 61.4 71.7 59.0 45.8 44.2 63.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 20.0 22.0 11.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 46.0 39.6 33.6 29.4 21.7 2.4 -17.3 -25.7 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -35.0 -11.0 -11.0 -28.0 39.0 58.0 92.0 67.0 VU U U VU N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 41.0 40.0 44.0 52.0 61.0 61.0 59.0 VU VU VU VU U N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -80.0 -75.0 -93.0 -85.0 -45.0 -28.0 -66.0-101.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.04 AL092025 251002 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.50 63.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.