Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092025 251002 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.90     60.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        65.0  64.8  78.5  71.0  57.3  41.9  45.7  58.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  23.0  16.0   6.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.6  43.6  39.4  35.4  30.5   0.2 -11.9 -14.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0  -7.0  -3.0  63.0  23.0  97.0  70.0  64.0  U  U  U  N  U  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  39.0  39.0  41.0  51.0  60.0  63.0  55.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -99.0-106.0-108.0 -26.0   3.0 -28.0 -66.0 -80.0 VF VF VF VF  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.76

 AL092025 251002 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.90     60.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.