Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102025 251007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30     43.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  28.2  29.1  27.9  30.6  35.3  31.3  25.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  39.0  47.0  66.0  79.0  46.0  59.0  94.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        125.0 124.3 124.3 124.3 124.3 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  79.0  63.0  51.0  51.0  49.0  41.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  63.0  69.0  74.0  75.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -11.0  -4.0   0.0   3.0  15.0   9.0   2.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.7%        8.8%        7.7%
 25kt / 24h       24.7%       46.8%       35.7%
 30kt / 24h       11.6%       34.1%       22.9%
 35kt / 24h        7.5%       34.1%       20.8%
 40kt / 24h        5.5%       27.3%       16.4%
 45kt / 36h       12.4%       49.2%       30.8%
 55kt / 36h        5.7%       28.5%       17.1%
 55kt / 48h       12.5%       19.6%       16.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%       13.3%        8.5%
 65kt / 72h       12.9%       24.0%       18.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 AL102025 251007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30     43.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  28.2  29.1  27.9  30.6  35.3  31.3  25.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  63.0  69.0  74.0  75.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -11.0  -4.0   0.0   3.0  15.0   9.0   2.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%