Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102025 251007 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80     45.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  32.6  32.2  32.7  32.1  36.3  31.4  27.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  44.0  66.0  72.0  49.0  49.0  73.0  71.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        119.3 119.3 119.3 117.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  63.0  43.0  34.0  48.0  80.0  93.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  56.0  59.0  66.0  69.0  76.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0  19.0   9.0  17.0  F  N  N  N  N VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.2%        7.0%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h       21.7%       34.1%       27.9%
 30kt / 24h       13.2%       20.2%       16.7%
 35kt / 24h        9.0%       20.2%       14.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%       18.1%       11.6%
 45kt / 36h        8.8%       30.3%       19.5%
 55kt / 36h        4.1%       13.0%        8.5%
 55kt / 48h        9.4%        9.3%        9.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        5.3%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        9.6%       12.5%       11.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 AL102025 251007 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80     45.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  32.6  32.2  32.7  32.1  36.3  31.4  27.3  F  F  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  56.0  59.0  66.0  69.0  76.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0  19.0   9.0  17.0  U  N  N  N  N VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%