Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102025 251008 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     47.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  34.4  33.0  32.2  34.6  30.1  28.3  23.9  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  71.0  79.0  82.0  47.0  60.0  92.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        114.6 114.6 119.3 117.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  27.0  32.0  55.0  71.0 106.0  81.0  79.0  N  U  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  58.0  62.0  68.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   3.0  -1.0  11.0  12.0   9.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        1.8%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       12.6%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%        4.9%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        4.4%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%        4.0%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.2%        8.9%        6.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        2.2%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        8.3%        4.1%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        1.5%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h       15.8%        6.1%       11.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 AL102025 251008 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     47.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  34.4  33.0  32.2  34.6  30.1  28.3  23.9  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  58.0  62.0  68.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   3.0  -1.0  11.0  12.0   9.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%