Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102025 251008 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     49.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  33.6  29.9  28.3  36.9  23.5  23.7  30.2  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  77.0  83.0  50.0  49.0  83.0  62.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        119.3 119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  47.0  63.0  70.0  67.0  61.0  64.0  90.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  59.0  63.0  67.0  73.0  79.0  79.0  76.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   1.0   4.0  11.0  10.0  12.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%        7.4%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        2.5%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        2.0%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        2.0%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%        3.9%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%        2.8%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        0.7%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h       13.8%        3.8%        8.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 AL102025 251008 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     49.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  33.6  29.9  28.3  36.9  23.5  23.7  30.2  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  59.0  63.0  67.0  73.0  79.0  79.0  76.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   1.0   4.0  11.0  10.0  12.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%