Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102025 251008 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30     51.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  31.0  27.3  34.0  32.9  24.5  28.0  30.4  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  90.0  52.0  47.0  51.0  93.0  50.0  47.0  N  F  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  45.0  65.0  54.0  52.0  51.0  88.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  65.0  68.0  74.0  78.0  78.0  72.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   8.0   7.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%        2.7%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%       14.6%       11.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.9%        5.8%        5.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.9%        5.5%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%        5.5%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%        7.2%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        1.6%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        8.7%        4.9%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        1.4%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h       11.5%        4.7%        8.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 AL102025 251008 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30     51.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  31.0  27.3  34.0  32.9  24.5  28.0  30.4  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  65.0  68.0  74.0  78.0  78.0  72.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   8.0   7.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%