Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102025 251008 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40     53.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  29.6  37.3  36.2  27.6  29.3  32.1  39.3  U  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  87.0  58.0  46.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        114.3 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 105.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  80.0  56.0  65.0  56.0  64.0 101.0 119.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  70.0  71.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   5.0  13.0  14.0  25.0  26.0  37.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        2.2%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%       10.2%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%        3.5%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        3.4%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%        3.4%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.2%        6.2%        5.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        1.3%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        7.6%        3.6%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        0.9%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        8.4%        2.2%        5.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 AL102025 251008 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40     53.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  29.6  37.3  36.2  27.6  29.3  32.1  39.3  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  70.0  71.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   5.0  13.0  14.0  25.0  26.0  37.0  N  N  N  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%