Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102025 251009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     55.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  31.1  31.8  26.3  27.2  22.6  26.1  32.8  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  47.0  49.0  53.0  95.0  49.0  44.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 104.6  95.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  74.0  55.0  86.0  52.0  66.0  82.0  65.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  70.0  75.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  66.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0   4.0  -2.0   3.0  14.0  13.0  39.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%        3.3%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       11.5%       18.3%       14.9%
 30kt / 24h        9.8%        8.3%        9.1%
 35kt / 24h        9.8%        8.3%        9.1%
 40kt / 24h        9.8%        8.3%        9.1%
 45kt / 36h       12.0%       11.4%       11.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.6%        2.8%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h       14.8%        8.2%       11.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        2.3%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h       13.9%        4.6%        9.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 AL102025 251009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     55.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  31.1  31.8  26.3  27.2  22.6  26.1  32.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  70.0  75.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  66.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0   4.0  -2.0   3.0  14.0  13.0  39.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%