Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102025 251009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     57.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  32.0  28.3  22.9  32.6  25.9  29.1  41.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  49.0  53.0  79.0  66.0  48.0  43.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 100.1  89.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  84.0 110.0 119.0  62.0  93.0  46.0  29.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  63.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   4.0  -1.0   4.0  21.0  17.0  23.0  37.0  N  N  N  N VU  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%        3.6%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h       17.0%       24.9%       20.9%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       12.9%       12.1%
 35kt / 24h       10.5%       12.9%       11.7%
 40kt / 24h       10.5%       12.9%       11.7%
 45kt / 36h       13.5%       12.6%       13.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%        3.2%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h       14.1%        7.8%       11.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        2.0%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        7.7%        2.5%        5.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.64

 AL102025 251009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     57.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  32.0  28.3  22.9  32.6  25.9  29.1  41.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  63.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   4.0  -1.0   4.0  21.0  17.0  23.0  37.0  N  N  N  N VF  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%