Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102025 251009 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60     58.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  30.1  27.0  30.7  30.8  26.0  36.2  40.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  52.0  68.0  92.0  52.0  48.0  40.0  38.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 100.1  89.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0 108.0 127.0  72.0  66.0  77.0  45.0  61.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  60.0  63.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   6.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  24.0  27.0  20.0  U  N  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        2.1%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h       11.2%       17.2%       14.2%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%        7.6%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%        7.3%        6.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.4%        7.2%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h        8.0%        7.3%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        1.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h       10.0%        5.5%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        1.0%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        6.3%        1.3%        3.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 AL102025 251009 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60     58.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  30.1  27.0  30.7  30.8  26.0  36.2  40.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  60.0  63.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   6.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  24.0  27.0  20.0  F  N  F  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%